No
67%
Yes
33%
Outcome rationale
As of Dec 3 there is no official confirmation; Valve just had a major hardware news day without HL, and historically avoids external show constraints. Even if HLX is real and advanced, plan slippage or a preference to unveil in early 2026 would push past the deadline. Rumor‑driven spikes have already missed once in November.
Pathways exist (standalone reveal or TGA) and multiple reputable leakers/dataminers claim HLX is far along and that a 2025 announcement is targeted. The market’s criterion doesn’t require the title “3,” only a Valve‑confirmed Half‑Life sequel set after HL2, which lowers the bar for YES. Still, the window is tight and Valve often controls timing conservatively.
This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026. Update 2025-11-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if Valve announces a game called "Half-Life" (even without a number like "3") that is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half-Life 2. The creator will use their judgment to determine if this criterion is met. Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A prequel or side story will not qualify for YES resolution. The game must be a meaningful continuation of the events following Half-Life 2 (not just a brief story segment like the ending of Half-Life: Alyx). Resolution source: https://manifold.markets/Bandors/halflife-3-confirmed-by-eoy